Summary


THE EFFECT OF CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE ON FINANCIAL STABILITY: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS WITH MULTIPLE STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Although price stability has been ensured in recent years, economic crises have brought to the agenda that it is not sufficient to only ensure price stability to prevent economic crises. Therefore, the importance of financial stability in predicting economic crises has increased recently. In line with this development, financial stability was analyzed instead of price stability in the study. In this direction, the aim of the study is to analyze the effects of central bank independence, current account balance, international reserves, exchange rate, and total loans on financial stability in Turkey between 1990-2021. The index developed by Jacome-Vasquez (2008), representing the independence of the Central Bank, was used. Tobin Q value was used to represent financial stability. Linear time series methods that take into account structural breakage were used for the analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that the central bank's independence and the international reserves have a positive effect on Tobin Q value and consequently financial stability, and the balance of total loans and current transactions has a negative impact on financial stability. These results show that the central bank cannot ensure financial stability by targeting price stability only and that it should also focus on intermediate targets such as credit growth and current account deficit without compromising price stability in order to achieve financial stability.



Keywords

Central bank independence, financial stability, Jacobe-Vazquez index, Tobin-Q value.



References